Since all the famous entertainment writers will spill out their thoughts on what should or should not win at the Oscars in a couple of weeks, I figure I can throw in my two-cents as well. And since I lack, um, syndication, nobody will able to call me out on it if I'm dead wrong.
Best Picture
Will Win - The King's Speech - The Social Network seemed to have had this in the bag a few months ago, but the SAG, Producer's Guild and BAFTA all seemed to think differently. I don't see the tide turning back again, nor do I doubt the marketing bravado of Harvey Weinstein.
Should Win - True Grit - Sure, it's not as good as the Coen's No Country for Old Men, but it was my favorite film of the year - and the best pure Western since Unforgiven - so that counts for something, right?
Long Shot - Toy Story 3 - This is probably the biggest long shot in history, but I can't help but think that the Academy has been dying to honor Pixar's endless string of achievements for quite some time. This film is as good a reason as any.
Best Actor
Will Win - Colin Firth - Who else has won anything else?
Should Win - Colin Firth - See above
Long Shot - There isn't one. But to avoid being so monosyllabic, I'll say Jesse Eisenberg, just because....
Best Actress
Will Win - Natalie Portman - I would have said Annette Bening for a second but let's face it, she's been better in the past than she was here. Not that that's ever stopped the Academy from giving career awards, but I think the sheer physicality of Portman's performance will win the day. Unless she gives one more freaking sex/pregnancy joke.
Should Win - Natalie Portman - Bening was fantastic and real, but I feel the Academy never rewards the physical aspects of a performance and, man, would there be a more deserving person in this respect than Portman?
Long Shot - Jennifer Lawrence - The Academy always has an indie darling each year and this time it's the wildly overrated Winter's Bone (but at least it's not the downright shitty Little Miss Sunshine from a few years back). Lawrence and the also-nominated John Hawkes are the best things in it, but should Portman and Bening split the vote, then who knows.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Christian Bale - See every other drug addict/alcoholic/terminally-ill nomination and win in the last decade.
Should Win - Christian Bale - Now look at those same performances and be glad that Bale surpasses most of them and thankfully doesn't seem to be trying too hard. I almost went with Jeremy Renner, but Bale wins by a hair.
Long Shot - Geoffrey Rush - Perfectly fine performance that would probably win in other years (yes, I'm looking at you 2005 and Alan Arkin), but will probably not win out next to Bale's showier performance.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Melissa Leo - Solid performance in a film full of solid acting. She's done enough fine work over the years and, her presumptuous ad campaign aside, is due for some recognition.
Should Win - Hailee Steinfeld - Well, True Grit starred Jeff Fucking Bridges and she still walked away with the movie. Even worse, she should be up for Best Actress seeing she was in nearly every scene. I'd still love to see her hold up the statuette either way. But I just won't hold my breath.
Long Shot - Helena Bonham-Carter - With Firth in the bag and Rush a possibility, maybe the Academy voters will just get lazy and bubble in Bonham-Carter for what is a perfectly fine, but inessential performance.
Best Director
Will Win - David Fincher - I really do envision a Best Director/Picture split this year a la 2000 (Steven Soderbergh/Gladiator) and 2006 (Ang Lee/Crash). And to be honest, The Social Network is the better-directed film since it could have gone wrong in so many ways but didn't. Add to the fact that Fincher is one of the best directors working today and I'd never even heard of Tom Hooper before The King's Speech. And yet...
Should Win - Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan could have been a complete clusterfuck and was brilliant. I'm sure Portman deserves a lot of the credit (and I'm pretty sure the Oscar is hers), but this is the best film from an already stellar director. Add to the fact that Black Swan has zero chance of winning Best Picture only makes a win like this more surprising and satisfying. But Fincher is a close second, only because his work with Seven, Fight Club and Zodiac was far more deserving.
Long Shot - Joel and Ethan Coen - It's a stretch, but you can't deny that people just love the Coens. If a struggle between Hooper and Fincher ensues, then you could see both of them at the podium again.
