Oscar Predictions

Since all the famous entertainment writers will spill out their thoughts on what should or should not win at the Oscars in a couple of weeks, I figure I can throw in my two-cents as well.  And since I lack, um, syndication, nobody will able to call me out on it if I'm dead wrong.

Best Picture

Will Win - The King's Speech - The Social Network seemed to have had this in the bag a few months ago, but the SAG, Producer's Guild and BAFTA all seemed to think differently.  I don't see the tide turning back again, nor do I doubt the marketing bravado of Harvey Weinstein.

Should Win - True Grit - Sure, it's not as good as the Coen's No Country for Old Men, but it was my favorite film of the year - and the best pure Western since Unforgiven - so that counts for something, right?

Long Shot - Toy Story 3 - This is probably the biggest long shot in history, but I can't help but think that the Academy has been dying to honor Pixar's endless string of achievements for quite some time.  This film is as good a reason as any.

Best Actor

Will Win - Colin Firth - Who else has won anything else?

Should Win - Colin Firth - See above

Long Shot - There isn't one.  But to avoid being so monosyllabic,  I'll say Jesse Eisenberg, just because....

Best Actress

Will Win - Natalie Portman - I would have said Annette Bening for a second but let's face it, she's been better in the past than she was here.  Not that that's ever stopped the Academy from giving career awards, but I think the sheer physicality of Portman's performance will win the day.  Unless she gives one more freaking sex/pregnancy joke.

Should Win - Natalie Portman - Bening was fantastic and real, but I feel the Academy never rewards the physical aspects of a performance and, man, would there be a more deserving person in this respect than Portman?

Long Shot - Jennifer Lawrence - The Academy always has an indie darling each year and this time it's the wildly overrated Winter's Bone (but at least it's not the downright shitty Little Miss Sunshine from a few years back).  Lawrence and the also-nominated John Hawkes are the best things in it, but should Portman and Bening split the vote, then who knows.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Christian Bale - See every other drug addict/alcoholic/terminally-ill nomination and win in the last decade.

Should Win - Christian Bale - Now look at those same performances and be glad that Bale surpasses most of them and thankfully doesn't seem to be trying too hard.  I almost went with Jeremy Renner, but Bale wins by a hair.

Long Shot - Geoffrey Rush - Perfectly fine performance that would probably win in other years (yes, I'm looking at you 2005 and Alan Arkin), but will probably not win out next to Bale's showier performance.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win - Melissa Leo - Solid performance in a film full of solid acting.  She's done enough fine work over the years and, her presumptuous ad campaign aside, is due for some recognition.

Should Win - Hailee Steinfeld - Well, True Grit starred Jeff Fucking Bridges and she still walked away with the movie.  Even worse, she should be up for Best Actress seeing she was in nearly every scene.  I'd still love to see her hold up the statuette either way.  But I just won't hold my breath.

Long Shot - Helena Bonham-Carter - With Firth in the bag and Rush a possibility, maybe the Academy voters will just get lazy and bubble in Bonham-Carter for what is a perfectly fine, but inessential performance.

Best Director

Will Win - David Fincher - I really do envision a Best Director/Picture split this year a la 2000 (Steven Soderbergh/Gladiator) and 2006 (Ang Lee/Crash).  And to be honest, The Social Network is the better-directed film since it could have gone wrong in so many ways but didn't.  Add to the fact that Fincher is one of the best directors working today and I'd never even heard of Tom Hooper before The King's Speech.  And yet...

Should Win - Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan could have been a complete clusterfuck and was brilliant.  I'm sure Portman deserves a lot of the credit (and I'm pretty sure the Oscar is hers), but this is the best film from an already stellar director.  Add to the fact that Black Swan has zero chance of winning Best Picture only makes a win like this more surprising and satisfying.  But Fincher is a close second, only because his work with Seven, Fight Club and Zodiac was far more deserving.

Long Shot - Joel and Ethan Coen - It's a stretch, but you can't deny that people just love the Coens.  If a struggle between Hooper and Fincher ensues, then you could see both of them at the podium again.

Sick Day Movie Thoughts

I spent the night coughing up a lung early Saturday morning, so I was able to catch a few movies to dull the pain.  Here's some thoughts to pass the time.

300 - Yeah, this movie is still really, really dumb.  But rarely is dumb done with such confidence and bravado, so it would be foolish for me to completely dismiss the film outright.  Sure, it's a live-action video game, so the action sequences, when not redundant, have zero tension.  But there is fun to be had with this movie, from its one-note acting to laughably over-the-top dialogue.  Actually, it's the first movie that's not nearly bad enough to be on 'Mystery Science Theater 3000,' but would be so welcome there all the same.

Any Given Sunday - Since I've spent the last 10 years enduring some truly awful Oliver Stone-cinema, I'm willing  to give this cliched mess - made in 1999 - a slight pass.  Like '300' before, it's a one-note movie about macho assholes who allow themselves to be mauled for our amusement.  The problem is, '300' kind of knew this (although I had my doubts at certain points), whereas 'Any Given Sunday' thinks it has a few profound points.  I think the scene with Al Pacino explaining the virtue of football to Jamie Foxx while the carriage race from 'Ben Hur' blares in the background finally destroyed my goodwill.  Subtlety was never Stone's strong point.  But then again, it's far superior than his nauseating history lesson, 'Alexander,' or his limp-dicked 'World Trade Center' and 'W.'  Small pleasures to be sure, but I'll take what I can get from a once-great filmmaker.

Blade II - If Guillermo del Toro ever stops making original wonders like 'Pan's Labyrinth,' then he should definitely be the go-to guy for genre retouches.  I say this because 'Blade II' has absolutely no right to be as good as it is.  The first installment was energetic and bloody fun, but I had no hope for the second go-around of a vampire hybrid who spends night slaying his own.  The script and story you could care less about, but del Toro creates some truly marvelous set pieces and action sequences.  The vampire Reapers themselves are a wonder of perverse inventiveness.  Roger Ebert put it best when he called the film "a vomitorium of viscera."  And although del Toro would go on to prove what he could do with strong material, 'Blade II' should be used in film school to show what a gifted filmmaker can do with shit.